I. Leading Indicators
- Money Supply (M0, M1, M2, M3): Changes in the total amount of money in circulation, often reflecting central bank policy intended to influence future economic activity.
- Stock Market Performance
- Building Permits/Housing Starts
- Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
- Manufacturing Orders/Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
- Yield Curve
- Initial Unemployment Claims
- Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing: Changes in this indicator can signal a shift in labor demand before a rise or fall in the unemployment rate.
- New Orders for Durable Goods: Reflects future manufacturing activity and business investment.
II. Coincident Indicators (Measure Current Activity)
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Industrial Production
- Personal Income and Spending
- Retail Sales
- Non-Farm Payrolls: A direct measure of the number of people employed in the economy (excluding farming).
- Capacity Utilization: Measures the percentage of total production capacity currently being used in industrial sectors.
III. Lagging Indicators (Confirm Past Trends)
- Unemployment Rate
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Interest Rates (set by central banks)
- Corporate Profits
- Balance of Trade
- Labor Cost Per Unit Output: Reflects changes in labor costs relative to productivity, which can indicate inflationary pressures.
- Commercial and Industrial Loans: Represents the amount of loans banks are making to businesses, often lagging as businesses borrow more once a recovery is underway.